000
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY
THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG