000
ABNT20 KNHC 141752
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
IS MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...REGENERATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND
MASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART