000
ABNT20 KNHC 132335
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DECREASSED THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...THE WAVE IS
LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF 
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN