000
ABNT20 KNHC 100559
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
OAXACA MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT
1045 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA.  THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN