000
ABNT20 KNHC 092357
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED
ABOUT 1155 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN