000
ABNT20 KNHC 091742
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN/BERG