000
ABNT20 KNHC 091204
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH