000
ABNT20 KNHC 090548
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGE LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS