000
ABNT20 KNHC 090309
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT
15 MILES NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART