000
ABNT20 KNHC 082356
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT
20 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART