000
ABNT20 KNHC 072358
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON JUST-UPGRADED
HURRICANE ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW
OF FLORENCE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI