000
ABNT20 KNHC 071756
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON JUST-UPGRADED
HURRICANE ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO.

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN