000
ABNT20 KNHC 071159
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.  THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINS
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY CURRENTLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN