000
ABNT20 KNHC 070555
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ISLA
ROATAN HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.  THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG