000
ABNT20 KNHC 032332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA