000
ABNT20 KNHC 031746
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE