000
ABNT20 KNHC 031153
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED 40 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.   THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE