000
ABNT20 KNHC 311732
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA
EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN