000
ABNT20 KNHC 221732
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTAINING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH WAS REPORTED
AT FOWEY ROCKS FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TODAY...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART