000
ABNT20 KNHC 221439
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT FOWEY
ROCKS FLORIDA...AND DOPPLER WEATHER DATA INDICATE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART