000
ABNT20 KNHC 231755
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.  HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA