000
ABNT20 KNHC 230531
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 175
MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENNISULA. RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW
REMAINS QUITE BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS
ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN