000
ABNT20 KNHC 191145
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOT IA IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. 
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN