000
ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT WINDS TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN