000
ABNT20 KNHC 231731
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BORDER
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. 

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF 
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH