000
ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS BORDER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A 
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
THROUGH MONDAY. 

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH