000
ABNT20 KNHC 222330
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN
BORDER...HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN