000
ABNT20 KNHC 221736
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
LOCATED A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHOULD FORCE THE LOW TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
AMERICA ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING...THIS SYSTEM
COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA