000
ABNT20 KNHC 221131
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
SINCE YESTERDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA