000
ABNT20 KNHC 220530
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN