000
ABNT20 KNHC 212347
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN