000
ABNT20 KNHC 211143
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING 
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE