000
ABNT20 KNHC 210544
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.
ALTHOUGH THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR 
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER A FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART