000
ABNT20 KNHC 202338
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. ALTHOUGH
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE OR DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART