000
ABNT20 KNHC 201734
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP
OF HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA