000
ABNT20 KNHC 181135
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD...ELONGATED...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH LATER
TODAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH