000
ABNT20 KNHC 180549
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE LOW CENTER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STRONGEST WINDS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH LATER TODAY.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG