000
ABNT20 KNHC 172344
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY BEFORE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN