000
ABNT20 KNHC 171935
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND
WINDS OF GALE FORCE...BUT NO EVIDENCE OF A CENTER OF CIRCULATION
NEAR THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN