000
ABNT20 KNHC 171732
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
INVESTIGATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE DISTURBED WEATHER HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN