000
ABNT20 KNHC 171139
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 100
MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE
AFTER THAT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI