000
ABNT20 KNHC 162334
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO AND LA BAJADA
CUBA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGE LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION.  THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.  ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN