000
ABNT20 KNHC 161730
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT
MAY BE REFORMING JUST TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL.  THE LOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI