000
ABNT20 KNHC 161143
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH