000
ABNT20 KNHC 160911
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD 
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART