000
ABNT20 KNHC 160551
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE 
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD 
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART