000
ABNT20 KNHC 152332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS.  DUE TO THE CENTER BEING OVER LAND...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN