000
ABNT20 KNHC 151735
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN