000
ABNT20 KNHC 151136
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. 
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN