000
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. 
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER DRIFTS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE